DHUnplugged #679: Rally Santa Rally!

Heading toward the barn - traders looking for Santa to come though for December November was a pretty spectacular month for stocks... Oil - OPEC+ making some moves - crude prices diving. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Announcing the Winner - CROC's and Entries for the CTP Cup 2023 - Thanksgiving is over - heading into the end of the year and investors appear excited - More strikes on  the horizon - Black Friday numbers are in - surprise - no surprise| - Temporary Cease Fire - Extended a few days - A Limerick Market Update - Short week - great month.... Best month in 2023 for most indices - AI got its grove back - Microsoft saved the day ! - -  VIX hits low since the pandemic -  KRI indicator +4 and holding with several clusters - Yields holding down - Housing numbers poor and economy slowly slowing - OIL! OPEC+ delays meeting - oil plunges on Wednesday... - Fed Parade of Talking heads is at it again.... Following: - Slap in Face? OpenAI not anticipated to offer MSFT a board seat on its new board, according to The Information - "It’s a sign that the board will prioritize safety practices ahead of investor returns." Word Watch - Seeing this word starting to seep into all sorts of areas - "ELEVATED" - Schwab ad: "An elevated experience tailor made for trader minds" - Pinky up! December - Traders and Investors heading for home.... - Santa Rally is a possibility, especially if we see a quick dump to get rid of some of this froth.... - So much bad news is baked in and plenty of momentum - USD breaking below the 50-day - good for stocks  and commods VIX - FRIDAY - The VIX index of implied volatility on the S&P500 plunged to its lowest close since just before the COVID-19 shock unfolded in 2020 - an extreme some fear will inspire demand for options hedging and reversion back toward historic mean. It ticked back up to regain a foothold above 13 today. - This is interesting as other metrics are calling for extreme overheat - KRI +4 and holding with clusters (+5 or +6 is very concerning) - S&P 500, NASDAQ all high (HIGH) levels of RSI - Spearman +97 (HIGH) ----- McClellan +137 (complex above zero line) Markets Love it! - Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) in Q&A says if inflation continues to fall for several more months, the policy rate could be lowered; if there is a consistent decline in inflation, no reason for rates to remain really high Black Friday Update - Cut and paste every year - US online revenue up 7.5% from last year: Adobe Analytics  (NOTE: Nominal - not adjusted for inflation) - Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion online in the US, Adobe Analytics reported, offering a positive sign for retailers facing lackluster sales forecasts for the holiday season. - Demand for electronics, smartwatches, TVs and audio equipment helped boost the day’s online sales by 7.5% compared with last year. - Consumers extended their budgets by leaning on buy-now, pay-later options, which climbed by 72% from the week before Thanksgiving (AFRM stock?) --- On the other hand: US Black Friday sales rise 2.5%  (less than anticipated) according to Mastercard and  many looking for bargains - E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year as consumers shopped for deals online, while in-store sales increased by 1.1%, MasterCard Spendingpulse said. Bank Closures  (JCD) - Big banks like PNC Bank and JPMorgan Chase filed for closing several of their branches in multiple states last week amid a troubling pattern of rising branch shutdowns over the past years. - Altogether, banks filed for shutting down 64 branches.