DHUnplugged #680: Too Many Bulls

Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point. Tax Trap - Watch-out! Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS) Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..) - A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret? - China - credit rating issue - My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023 Market Update - Gold at all-time high! - Bitcoin Update - Moving - Alt assets picking up - good or bad? - Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trap Bitcoin - Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds. - Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11. - UP 165% YTD - Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021 Gold - Hitting ATH -- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking? - Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak --- Time to buy? Rare Earth Metals - Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics. - China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity - US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner - FYI - RARE is not really rare - Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process - These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine. Oil Prices - Now Sitting at $72 --- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waning CHINA - Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable - Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength. - Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds, - Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debt Canada - Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months - The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months. - New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October. Switzerland - A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service - Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors - Where does that money go? - Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said. - The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period. ----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything? - Swiss banks are not so special anymore... VIX and Gamma - An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.