DHUnplugged #698: Risk Happens

Risk - happens fast! Costco Selling ALOT of Gold April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals Rates spike, oil moves lower PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Risk Happens FAST - Costco Selling ALOT of Gold - April 15th - Tax payment withdrawals - Fewer students attending 2 0r 4-year college Market Update - Banks reporting - mixed results - Rates UP! - Earnings Season - Risk off - Missiles Flying --- WAR escalations concerning investors Rates - Rates spiked with all of the recent concern that the Fed will not be cutting rates so fast - Came on on the Iran retaliation worries - Spike Monday to 4.64% for the 10Yr - starting to get worrisome that could be technical move and disrupt markets Rates in Europe - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. - "We just need to build a bit more confidence in this disinflationary process but if it moves according to our expectations, if we don't have a major shock in development, we are heading towards a moment where we have to moderate the restrictive monetary policy," Lagarde said. --- Also noted that she is very attentive to the price of oil HA! If you don't like the numbers... - The Bank of England on Friday announced a “once in a generation” overhaul of its inflation forecasting following a long-awaited review by former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke. - The review was initiated in response to criticism over shortcomings in the bank’s recent policymaking. - It sets out 12 recommendations — including scrapping the bank’s “fan chart” forecasting system — which BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said the bank was committed to implementing. Inflation Spots Sticker Shock And then at 1:30PM Tuesday - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Canadian forum says recent data shows lack of progress on returning to 2% inflation goal; says US economic performance has been quite strong. - Markets were not pleased - ---- Begs the question: - what is the point of this at a time with such global stress having these types of comments? ---- WSJ's Nick Timiraos says Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "dialed back" rate reduction expectations at Canadian forum amid new inflation uncertainty Safe-haven? - Bitcoin and other cryptos PLUNGE when Iran sent misses and drones - How is that digital gold or store of value? - Simply trades like a speculative risk asset and starting to hear that phrase quite a lot. - Tried to rally on Sunday when Iran said that is all they are doing- but sold off again Monday Earnings This Week -  Plenty of banks and financials (BAC, GS etc) also Netflix Thursday after the close - Proctor and Gamble on Friday - Problem is that they come right as risk elevated. Goldman Sachs Earnings - Goldman Sachs on Monday posted first-quarter profit and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations, fueled by a surge in trading and investment banking revenue. - The bank said profit jumped 28% to $4.13 billion, or $11.58 per share, from the year earlier period, thanks to a rebound in capital markets activities - Goldman shares climbed more than 4% in the days trading Monday. JPM Earnings - The bank said first-quarter profit rose 6% to $13.42 billion, or $4.44 per share, from a year earlier, boosted by its takeover last year of First Republic during the regional banking crisis. - But in guidance for 2024, the bank said it expected net interest income of around $90 billion, which is essentially unchanged from its previous forecast. - That appeared to disappoint investors, some of whom expected JPMorgan to raise its guidance by $2 billion ...

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This is the unscripted discussions of John C. Dvorak and Andrew Horowitz. Open mic style conversations about the economy, finance and the wacky world of business. Tips and rants are all part of each episode.