2021 Predictions for Philanthropy & Civil Society
In this episode, at the end of a tumultuous and unpredictable year, we attempt (wisely or not!) to give some predictions for what 2021 might bring... ECONOMIC DOWNTURN Impact of Pandemic & Brexit: more demand, charity finances hit, less giving? Charity closures/mergers? Reimagining resilience? Political Division Ongoing division Ongoing politicisation of charity/culture wars Closing space for civil society Foreign funding restrictions Nationalism/Globalism/Localism Will the pandemic make us think for locally, nationally or globally? Will we see more moves towards devolution? Philanthrolocalism The Post-Pandemic workplace How will changes made through necessity during the pandemic affecting the charity workplace longer term? Will we see more orgs thinking through the optimum balance offline and online for their work as we become more aware of the strengths and weaknesses of both (e.g. efficiency and ability to reach wider geographic area vs value of offline serendipity, human connection) Will there continue to be more adoption of remote/mixed working? Will we see orgs change how they think about the purpose of the office? Will this begin a geographic rebalancing of the charity sector workforce? The Expanding landscape for doing good Further expansion of space for “doing good” as we see more networked movements, informal P2P giving, mutual aid groups, corporates with purpose etc. What is the USP of charities in this context? Rebalancing of corporate/charity relationships as companies lay claim to purpose? Continuing rise of networked movements Continuing interest in Mutual Aid? The participation premium- what can charities learn? Cross cutting issues Will the focus on racial justice/equality decline across wider society as we move further away from this year’s momentum around BLM? Can civil society take a lead in maintaining that momentum? Will we see the focus on climate renewed? Will these issues increasingly be seen not as “cause areas”, but as cross-cutting concerns that all CSOs need to take into account? What does this mean in practice- e.g. re investment approaches, leadership in civil society, composition of the non-profit workforce etc? Post-pandemic Philanthropic funding trends Unrestricted/core cost/trust based grantmaking. Will the trend continue? More collaboration Push for centralisation Continuing pushback on impact measurement More participatory approaches New areas of funding focus: social movements infrastructure digital foresight Journalism Philanthropy Under Fire Ongoing critiques: Tainted donations (expect more examples) Anti-democratic nature of big philanthropy Philanthropy part of the problem re inequality New critiques: Pace, perpetuity (e.g. US DAF legislation) Philanthropy & conspiracy theories Mass Giving What is happening to giving? Long term decline or not? Giving pulled forward in response to the pandemic, or increased overall? Will we see more big philanthropy focussed on encouraging mass giving? Disintermediation & Platform Philanthropy Acceleration of existing growth of online giving due to pandemic will put more emphasis on platforms, leading to: more focus on responsibilities of those platforms (Neutrality of platforms/advisers under greater scrutiny Further moving away from donors giving to orgs towards P2P giving/crowdfunding Use of payment apps (Venmo/CashApp) to give direct to individuals More commercial platforms offering giving functionality Awareness of Platform dependency Risks CSOs will become more aware that platforms are not digital public space Examples of platform dependency risks: Terms of Service changes Censorship Engagement of civil society in tech issues Will the enforced pivot to digital during the pandemic lead to wider awareness of, and engagement in, technology issues? Growing interest in civil society alternatives to commercial digital infrastructure? Continuing pushback on tech ethics framing? AI trends Further development of giving via conversational AI interfaces (and growing awareness of opportunities & challenges)? More examples of use of AI for process automation, e.g. in grantmaking? Immersive Tech More supporter led fundraising using short-form video content (TikTok-style)? VAR becomes more popular; more examples of it being used for fundraising? Further forays into gaming and E-sports for fundraising? Cryptocurrency & blockchain Renewal of interest in crypto-philanthropy? More examples of practical/ ethical challenges (e.g. anonymous donations from problematic sources, volatility of crypto-assets). Cybersecurity & RegTech challenges Ransomware/cyber attacks on charities increase (linked to increase in remote working?) Related Links: Rhod’s Alliance magazine piece on “The Ethics of Platform Philanthropy” Rhod’s guest appearance on Zoe Amar and Paul Thomas’s Starts At The Top podcast CAF report on global responses to supporting philanthropy and civil society during the pandemic “The Giving Apps: How Venmo and CashApp Upended a Centuries-Old Model” OneZero Medium “Charity, Philanthropy & Mutual Aid Post-Pandemic”, Giving Thought blog “Philanthropy and Civil Society After Covid-19” Giving Thought blog Our Giving Thought podcast with Louise Pulford, Josiane Smith and Dame Julia Unwin Our Giving Thought podcast with Paul Vallely Our Giving Thought podcast with Ingrid Srinath Our Giving Thought podcast with Lucy Bernholz Lucy Bernholz's 2021 Blueprint philanthropy & civil society industry forecast for Stanford PACS Our Giving Thought podcast with Regan Ralph Our Giving Thought podcast on The History of Philanthropy & Civil Society in Times of Crisis Our Giving Thought podcast on Tainted Donations “Statues, Slavery & Tainted Donations”, CAF Giving Thought blog “How Nonprofits Can Utilize Decentralized Finance”, session at the BitGive Foundation’s DePhi conference CAF submission to DCMS inquiry into Immersive & Addictive Technology CAF Giving Thought paper “Machine Made Goods: Charities, Philanthropy & Artificial Intelligence” CAF Giving Thought work on blockchain and cryptocurrency CAF Giving Thought paper “Networking Opportunities: Rediscovering Decentralisation in Philanthropy & Civil Society”