Bias & Behavioral Heuristics In Forecasting
IBF On Demand sponsored by Arkieva, your one-plan S&OP software. Learn more about Arkieva's innovative approach to forecasting here: http://bit.ly/business-forecastingThis week I talk to Jonathan Karelse of North Find Management about how I am 100% perfect and other people are biased and wrong.02:37 I'm not biased but you definitely are 06:00 Jonathan's research into identifying bias in Demand Planners08:34 The Dunning Kreuger effects10:11 The representative heuristic 11:11 The availability heuristic 12:46 Intertemporal discounting 13:44 The shocking extent to which people are biased14:20 An example of the framing effect/anchor bias19:15 Overconfidence - the most insidious of all biases 21:40 Cluster illusion - the Achille's Heel of Demand Planners23:48 How to overcome our own biases 28:40 Don't add or use what cannot be measuredShow less Support the showTo sign up for regular updates and the latest research, events, articles, podcasts and more from the Institute of Business Forecasting & Training, visit www.ibf.org