Chris Rutherglen: Gold’s Cycle Highs are Dead Ahead

Tom welcomes a new guest Chris Rutherglen. Chris has a Ph.D. and is a Semiconductor Engineer and has an interesting approach to cycle analysis of the gold price. In 2003 he became interested right out of university in metals. This was around the 2003 cycle low for gold. This led him to value investing. After graduate school, he obtained his CFA Levels. Chris explains his interesting charting approach to projecting the future price for gold by contrasting it against money supply and annual mine supply. These levels give you a reference benchmark and seem useful for judging resistance levels and timing the market cycle. Understanding the growth in the money supply is key. He shows several charts of gold's historic price along with the percentage gains. There are two key cycles of 7.5 years and 15 years to watch. Chris notes that the biggest performance gains are likely to occur on the way to $3000+ gold. He expects a strong move upwards during 2022 and 2023 then a significant pullback which will become another great buying opportunity. Chris details his thoughts on the dollar and where it could go during its three and fifteen-year cycles. There doesn't appear to be much strength left in the dollar and we should be in for a further decline soon. The mid-point of this decade is a likely target for gold reaching its high. Lastly, he details his thoughts on Comex gold futures including deliveries and premiums. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - His Background3:54 - Gold Price Models7:02 - Cycle Levels for Gold10:13 - Cycle Levels & M2/CPI13:00 - Current Cycle Position16:55 - Model Price Levels19:23 – - 7.5 Year Cycle-Low 200820:07 – - The 70s/80s+ Gold Cycles22:01 - Present Advancing Phase24:13 - Gold's Two Cycles27:15 - Path to $300031:22 - US Dollar Cycles35:49 - Gold & USD38:47 - All Sector Debt/M243:25 - Gold's Path to 7K44:46 - 45-Year Cycle45:33 - 1970s Comparison50:00 - Gold to Fed Funds Rate53:37 - Comex Gold Futures57:05 - Comex Deliveries1:01:09 - Max Pain Threshold1:06:10 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode * Charting and projecting gold future performance.* Golds cyclical patterns of 7 and 15 years.* Comparing the 70s move to today.* Analyzing Comex gold futures and deliveries. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/CRutherglen Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He first began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvine.