Intelligence, AI, Five Eyes & Resilience with Sir David Omand

In this episode of Technology and Security, Dr Miah Hammond-Errey speaks with Sir David Omand. The interview is an exploration of the evolving landscape of intelligence, technology and security from the Cold War to the near real time intelligence in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They discuss adaptation in intelligence from high frequency radio to generative AI and from state threats to myriad threat actors. They explore the interpretative nature of data and the necessity for analytical skill in understanding multiple possible explanations in both intelligence work and political decision-making. They discuss the importance of intelligence in supporting diplomatic efforts and informing policy decisions, the unique trust as well as generational and cultural depth of the Five Eyes alliance and the risks of politicising intelligence.  Moving beyond the debate of comparative importance of specific collection mechanisms they discuss the real value of diversity of thought and experiences in analytical outcomes in intelligence work. They explore the need for security to be considered within the human rights framework, rather than as separate and potentially conflicting priorities. They cover why the resilience of information architectures is critical – and flows of information are akin to the principles of supply chain dependencies. They also discuss intelligence leadership during technological change, stressing motivation, mission and adaptability. Sir David Omand GCB is a RUSI Distinguished Fellow, KCL Visiting Professor; former UK Security and Intelligence Co-ordinator, Cabinet Office Resources mentioned in the recording: ·               Omand, D. (2010) Securing the state. New York, Columbia University Press.·               Omand, D. (2020) How Spies Think: Ten Lessons in Intelligence, Penguin Books Limited. ·               Omand, D. (2024) How to Survive a Crisis, Lessons in Resilience and Avoiding Disaster, Penguin Books Limited. ·               Miah Hammond-Errey, 2024, Big Data, Emerging Technologies and Intelligence: National Security Disrupted, Routledge (20% discount code for book AFL04)·               Miah Hammond-Errey, 9 Feb 2023, Secrecy, sovereignty and sharing: How data and emerging technologies are transforming intelligence, United States Studies Centre·               Miah Hammond-Errey (2023) Big data, emerging technologies and the characteristics of ‘good intelligence’, Journal of Intelligence and National Security·               Cixin Liu (2008) Three Body Problem  This podcast was recorded on the lands of the Gadigal people, and we pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging. We acknowledge their continuing connection to land, sea and community, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Thanks to the talents of those involved. Music by Dr Paul Mac and production by Elliott Brennan.  Transcript check against delivery Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: Sir David Omand has had to date two rather remarkable careers. He had an extensive leadership career in British security, intelligence and defence, holding senior positions, including as director of GCHQ. He served on the UK Joint Intelligence Committee and was the first security and intelligence coordinator in the Cabinet Office. Subsequently, he became a non-executive director, has been awarded honorary doctorates and holds esteemed academic posts as well as publishes prolifically. He is currently a visiting professor in the War Studies Department at the King's College London. His books are Securing the State Principled Spying The Ethics of Secret Intelligence with professor Mark Pythian, and How Spies Think. His forthcoming book is called How to Survive a Crisis. I'm so thrilled to have you join me on the Technology and Security podcast, David.  Sir David Omand: I'm looking forward to this conversation. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: We're coming to you today from the lands of the Gadigal people. We pay our respects to their elders, past, present and emerging both here and wherever you're listening. We acknowledge their continuing connection to land, seeing community, and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: [00:01:27] What are the biggest changes you've seen throughout your distinguished career in intelligence? Sir David Omand: Well, two stand out. Obviously. One is the changes in the nature of the threats that intelligence is there to support government decision making. And the other is obviously in the technology. I joined GCHQ in 1969. So it was in the Cold War. It seems a very, very long time ago. But of course there was no internet, there were no emails. The interception of communications was of high frequency transmissions and even high frequency Morse was was still very much in use. And all of that has changed beyond recognition. The fundamental purposes haven't changed. I think of intelligence as the reason human beings evolved. Intelligence was to make better decisions by reducing the ignorance of the person trying to make the decision. Dr Miah Hammond-Errey: [00:02:34] So you've outlined a pretty major change in the threat landscape and of course, in technology. how ready do you think intelligence agencies are for the challenges that we face now? But those coming down the line as well. Sir David Omand: I think if I took the Five Eyes we've done well so far, uh, to keep up with some of the big technological changes, there are still obviously adaptations we need to make and the nature of the threat with the reappearance, if you like, of perceptions of major state threats. Uh, uh, that takes some time to adjust to. We've in Europe, we have a major war going on, but with following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But at the end of the Cold War, the British intelligence establishment, we ceased to maintain the number of Russian speakers and specialists in Russian weapons systems, Soviet weapons systems, which we used to have, and some of that has had to be rebuilt. So the intelligence world, it's always about adaptation, about trying to keep up. I think of it in terms of a dynamic interaction between demand and supply. You have demands for intelligence. And after 911, those demands were very different. They were about information on individuals, individual terrorists, for example. Where were they? Who were their associates, where were they traveling, what capabilities did they have? And those sort of demands for information coincided with a huge upheaval in supply, the ability of digital technology and the internet to supply answers t...