FM 026: Understanding What Todd Means By “Epochal Change”
Two years ago, I announced to my Expectancy Wealth Planning course community that we were about to enter epochal change. Between the Fed's permissive monetary policy, near-zero interest rates, Covid stimulus, and supply-chain issues, it was clear the game had changed. And here we are now, with a 20% stock market decline, historic bond market decline, the highest inflation in 40 years, and a slowing economy. The bad news is there's still more to come. But more importantly, epochal change means the investment rules changed for the next 10-15 years. What worked for the last epoch (40+ years) cannot be relied upon for the next epoch. I've been writing about this very topic for two years in my private course community to prepare my students, and I've published resources every month for more than a year in my public facing newsletter to prepare my free subscribers as well. My goal was to provide the knowledge required so that every person following my work could protect and prepare their portfolios in advance. Forewarned is forearmed. While my private course community responded to the education, protected themselves, and even prospered, I was surprised that only a small percentage of my public facing, free subscribers took action. Even though I was providing academic level, third-party research proving every supporting point, people weren't responding. It was like they were asleep at the wheel, and didn't believe the regime change was fundamental in nature and would persist. I decided to check in with my course community in our weekly office hours call. The discussion that followed was so valuable that I wanted to share it publicly. Fortunately, my private community students agreed. This podcast episode is a nearly unedited recording of one my weekly office hours support calls with my private Expectancy Wealth Planning community as we discuss epochal change. I hope this inside look behind the paywall helps you take appropriate action to secure your financial future. And if you got great value from this episode, make sure to check out my Expectancy Wealth Planning course here. In this episode you'll discover: * What is epochal change? * The signs I saw two years ago for epochal change * Why I've been talking to my Expectancy Wealth Planning course students about epochal change * How inflation was inevitable after the Fed's stimulus in the face of supply chain disruption * The important role the Fed has played in creating epochal change * What you can expect to see the markets do for the next 10-15 years * How investing in this epoch will be different from the last 40 years * How my course students were able to save their paper asset portfolios from the current bear market * The best tool to manage your paper assets during the next epoch and beyond * Why the investment strategy that worked reliably in the past won't work in the future * How to avoid the insidious trap of “buy the dip” * The signs for epochal change * The best way to guard against volatile markets * The dangers of recency bias * Why most people don't understand epochal change * How to apply risk management to investing