How much to today’s higher interest rates really matter?

In this second episode with Aaron Chapman, we discuss how much interest rates actually matter. Over the past couple of years, low interest rates have allowed people to get into a deal and see immediate cashflow. But with interest rates rising, many are concerned that they are not seeing immediate positive cash flow. Is that a deal breaker? Should investors sit on the sidelines and wait for rates to drop once again? Or should investors be thinking about real estate like other business models and be willing to put their capital into a deal and expect to see profits occur over a longer time horizon? Tune in to hear Aaron’s unique take on these questions.    Aaron Chapman is a veteran in the finance industry with 25 years of experience helping clients better understand, source, and finance cash-flow positive investment properties. He advises over 100 clients a month in the acquisition and financing of their investment properties and primary residences. Aaron is ranked in the top 1% of mortgage loan processors in the country, in an industry of over 300,000 licensed loan originators, closing in excess of 100 transactions per month. Episode links: https://apps.apple.com/uy/app/qjo-investment-tool/id1533823468 https://www.aaronbchapman.com/ --- Transcript Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: What's going on everyone? Welcome to another episode of the remote real estate investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today joining me again, I got Aaron Chapman. And in case you missed, here's prior episodes, definitely go back and give that a listen. But Aaron is a lender in the residential mortgage industry. And he's got a wealth of knowledge and experience under his belt. And today we're talking about how much interest rates actually matter to doing our deals. So let's get into it.   Aaron Chapman, welcome back, man. Good to see you.   Aaron: Good to see you too, man. It's good to be back. In fact, it hasn't been long.   Michael: For those of you that caught our prior episode with Aaron, we are recording this back to back so we figured we just knock it out.   Aaron: I don't I don't have a dozen of these specific shirts for those who are wondering.   Michael: Like, yeah, he bearded his braid exactly the same and wearing the exact same hat and funny, he's in the exact same location. So Aaron, today we're talking about how much rates really matter. And you've been in the mortgage business since 97. For those folks that didn't catch your bio and background go and get that first episode listen to let's talk about like how much rates matter, man, like rates are creeping up, not keeping up but seem to be running up as to where they were previously. And I'm hearing a lot of folks kind of get scared and spooked and want to hang on the sidelines until rates come down. So give us a little bit insight is that right thinking? Is that the wrong thinking help drop some knowledge?   Aaron: Well, it's I like to tell everybody so level of your everything has to do with a level your comfort, right? Your ability to get in there and, and slug it out and make things work? Because it all has to be about interest rate. And are you really a real estate investor, because that's why I work with as a real estate investor, opportunity is only sitting in front of you at the time that it's in front of you. And often people are trying to get the market to line up and I look at that kind of like watching a star football player sitting on the bench on the sidelines, waiting for the perfect time to jump on the field to get on the highlight reel. Well,   Michael: That's such a good analogy.   Aaron: We're on the field at the time the game is being played, right? They're not sitting on the sidelines at all. It's amazing how often people think that they have the capability to time something and most people trying to time it have never time the damn thing in their life. Right. In fact, most of them are fairly new new investors or investors with maybe you've had five or six houses. So you feel like you're a seasoned investor. I've been doing this for 24 years I've been at this since 1997. I'm barely seasoned in what I do. And the reason I feel that I'm barely seasons, because I do over 1300 transactions a year for real estate investors, I get to see where a lot of people are making decisions, or a lot of people are making mistakes and where a lot of people are doing it right where a lot of people failing or a lot of people are succeeding.   What I tell all my all the people I work with is there's this old saying good judgment comes from experience and experience comes from bad judgment, great way to learn on the grade school playground of very, very tough way to learn in real estate. So don't go about trying to figure out things that way yourself. Reach out to me, I got to see for 1000s of people have made decisions. I'll guide you through that telling you stories. I don't answer questions. I tell stories as to what I've seen other people do. So you will have practical data, not speculation in theory, and then hopefully, hopefully, we're able to guide you in a way that makes you successful now is it going to be successful every time you make a decision? No, you're going to hit a brick wall between those brick walls, that just means you got to change your direction and keep moving and keep moving and keep moving.   So then you eventually find success because you become nimble enough become successful, it does not benefit me to close a deal and you fail, because that's only one deal. I need your 100th deal. That's what makes my business work is to do this dozens of time with you not just one time and walk away. That's not the business I built. So when it comes to interest rates, you need to get comfortable with it and understand that you're never the price of money is always going to move. But what we also have is the price of housing is always moving. You know, we talked about in last episode, the average rent is going up by 12%. Year over year. I don't expect that to be sustainable. I think it's probably a go up, you know, maybe seven, but it's going to keep going right? We have we're short how many houses right now in the United States,   Michael: I think like 5.2 million or something of that effect.   Aaron: 5.2 million and what's the building looking like right now people are not there's not a lot of construction going on, compared to what the demand is. We've got a hurricane, they just wiped out on how many houses we don't even know that the full total that devastation and then the ability of the supply chain to be able catch up with that. And then of course there's talk of another pandemic coming which we saw the effects of that one, and how well handled that mess was. You start stacking all these things up rents and quarterly rental increases are here to stay. So when you're on that end of it, and you get to continue to increase your rents effect, let's do the math real quick here. Let's say, let's say you got $100,000. House, you're renting it for $1,000 a month. Right. And now you get to raise the rent by 3%. Well, they're saying you're only getting say 60 bucks a month in cash flow. That's not sexy. You're not getting excited, right?   Michael: That's a couple of Chipotle is with guacamole.   Aaron: Exactly. So 60 bucks right now, not a big deal. So you raise the rents by 3%? What's 3% of 1030 bucks, 30 bucks, nothing. It's actually nobody's excited. Again, what's really cool about is your tenant won't get excited. And I can just up and move and know the night and dump concrete down the toilet. Right? So it went up by 30 bucks. But you're making $60 a month cash flow, you're one now you're making 90. So what percentage did your cashflow go up by?   Michael: 50%.   Aaron: That’s a 50% compound growth in your cash flow. So what you start to see here is over time, it's not going to happen right away. You know, it's not, it's not Swift, but it is certain that you will continue to get this compound growth in the double digits a year over year over year. But as we talked about, in the last episode, go back and listen and get my get my my tool, the QJO investment tool, and run these numbers, you're gonna find that you're paying back less and less and less for that set mortgage you have, even if the rates go eight, nine, 10%, you're paying back less, because inflation is eroding the dollar. But yet you're increasing at double digits. As far as your cash flow, there will come a point that one catches the other and you surpass it. It's much like any investment that a person does. It's amazing how we can talk ourselves into getting into other types of investment vehicles, like all but if you stick with it for three, four years, you're gonna see it really grow or 10 years or whatever. But yet you get into a house. And also we think of it as an expense. When it comes to real estate. It's not you're not spending money and going into debt. You're a business owner, that is now the pass through for this capital, you get to increase.   Michael: I love that. I love that. Aaron answer me this because I think it's something that I've been hearing from a lot of people I know for sure, in the Roofstock Academy is folks saying, Michael, five months ago, I could go buy a house for 150 grand and make 100 bucks cash flow at three and a half 4%. Now that same have that same price, the same purchase price is still 150 grand, but now I'm paying seven and a half percent that eroded all my cash flow. Does that mean I should still go buy that deal? And hang on for those first couple of years? Because I'm going to get that double digit compound growth with the rental increase? Or do I just need to go find a new deal? Or potentially a different market?   Aaron: I've got I've got a few answers that I would give right. And I sometimes depends on the individual, right? Because I do ask them Okay, so what do you think right? Now let them tell me, because I want to find out what's going on your head, right? So tell me what your first instinct is. But if they're asked me exactly what I would do, I mean, again, I might get cut out here, guys, when I was gonna have your balls attached or are they there for decoration, right? Nobody has ever made a fortune because they they want out of the gate. Nothing is ever has ever paid what a few things are paid off out of the gate, right. But most times they don't. We had a history of people making this amazing cash on cash return for the last, what 10 years, it was the easiest thing in the world to sell cash on cash return for the real estate sales side of it. I think my personal belief is the real estate sales side of it has actually put themselves in a corner, and they're trying to claw their way out of it. Because we spent so much time talking cash on cash. We never talked about the rest of the ways people made money. It never got discussed.   For the last eight, nine years. I've talked about everything but cash on cash return, if they take that metric and throw it away, take their performance somebody gave you because that's that's Greek for bullcrap. It doesn't mean anything. They made those numbers up. Right? So let's talk about reality. Right? And reality is business is going to cost you something nobody has ever opened up a shoe store was profitable in the first five years, right, you have to have a certain amount of capital to get started, everything needs a certain amount of capital to get started. You're the CEO, the CEO of your startup real estate investment firm, that means you are going to be a lot more discerning about what kind of property you buy, when you're not making $200 a month cash flow out of the gate than you would be when your before making cash no matter what happened because of interest rates are so low, they softened all the blows.   But now, because of things the way they are, you're going to become a better CEO, you're going to sink more, you're going to take more time to understand what you're buying, you're going to buy the right property. And that's what it's all about. What can you keep reasonably rented for the entire time you own it, and what can you raise rents on that's it. If you can get that to line up and that alone, you will continue you will see that compound increase we were talking about. You may have to nurse that that investment along for the first couple of years. But then you're going to get that compound set and forget it kind of growth. And that's where I tell people it's going to teach you to be a real estate investor now. The people that are not real estate investors, they're out we're not gonna have to deal with them anymore. You're not gonna have to fight with the masses of people try To get in on that one deal and bidding at too high, what you're going to have is people gonna be very, very discerning, and you're become a smarter person as a result.   Michael: Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense. And I was just going to ask you, but I think you kind of beat me to it, do you think we're going to see the investment investor pool thin out, because folks are looking at deals and saying, the numbers don't work, I can't invest in this, or they bought deals two months ago, and are now getting burned by it?   Aaron: Yeah, I think we're going to see people get out of it. And we're gonna have some of the true investors be able to capitalize on it, that people understand what they're getting into, they're gonna jump in there, and they're gonna be able to weather this properly. Because it's about the it's about the real estate itself. It's not about the loan, it never was about the loan, you know, we had the loan was a way of getting a lot of people involved. And probably a lot of people shouldn’t have been involved with, they got involved anyway, right. And so they're still going to do well, because what's really cool about that, if you got that in that loan, that 3%, or 4%, or 5%, loan, that is an, that's an asset in itself. That's a massive asset. In fact, any loan for 30 years is a massive asset. But that's even even bigger assets. So now you have a tradable commodity, if you will, because now it's like hey, I can I can hold this house, and I can literally kind of sell this into with a with an owner financing kind of deal or something to that effect.   Now how that will play out, don't say Aaron Chapman said it's okay to do this. You got to check with your lender, make sure you're not putting yourself in a bad spot, talk to an attorney, all that kind of thing. There's instruments to make that happen. I'm not your guy to guide you through that. I'm just saying that that's a valuable thing to lock money up in single digits. Think about that single digits, because if you go back to 1971, all the way till 2009, the average interest rate for somebody living in a house was 9.1%. If you take that 1971 Till now, the average interest rate was 7.76%. For somebody living in the house, that was not real estate investors. The only reason it went down from 9.1 to 7.76. Is because of quantitative easing. When did quantitative easing start, Michael?   Michael: Man, I didn't know I thought it was just gonna be an interview. I didn't know it was gonna be a frickin test. When did it start?   Aaron: I'd love to quiz everybody. Because here's why your mind starts thinking and now you're gonna remember the answer. We're gonna give it to you.   Michael: That's true.   Aaron: Hopefully, because I'm gonna ask you next time. So quantitative easing didn't start till after the crash crash happened in 2008 2008. We'll talk about that in our next time we come together because that right there had to teach resiliency to a lot of people. Well, then the government decided, Okay, we're gonna start this quantitative easing thing, we're gonna take US Treasury capital flowing through the Fed. And we're going to start buying into mortgage backed securities and into treasuries in was a corporate bonds and all of these other things. And as a result to doing that started January 1, 2009, till the end of March 2010, the Fed dumped $1.25 trillion into the market, just in that short window of time to bring interest rates down and start getting the economy going again. But now, they couldn't stop it, and they kept it going and kept going kept going, then you get to the pandemic of 2020. Now, we just talked about 1.25 trillion between March January 2009, to end of March 2010. Now you get to March 20, 2020. From March 20 to march 30. They dumped in another trillion in 10 days to basically bring the market off of where it was because the market crashed. Right. We had a massive meltdown in the in stocks.   What happens? What happens if people have more? Have stocks on margin when stocks dropped that far?   Michael: Oh big problem.   Aaron: Yeah, massive, I've got a margin call, right? Well, banks don't take our money that we deposit and just stick it in the vault, right? They invest it places, they need to make money on that money, they're gonna pay us our little pittance of whatever, right? They're gonna continue to make money on it? Well, a lot of times, they're gonna have that money into the markets and stocks and other equities. And as a result of that, they may have no margin, they did have no margin, they gotta pay a margin call. They can't just go back to the coffers. Because the the vaults empty, they have it all on investment. So they have to sell assets, what assets did they sell, they sold mortgage backed securities. Interest rates spiked during that window of time. It was it was amazing how much they spiked. The fact got to the point, I couldn't lock rates now. Now and again, the rates will be published might have five people on my team all ready to go. And I just kept refreshing the rates all day. As soon as there's ready to go, we could we'd lock 50 loans at a time. And they were ugly rates, but people needed to lock.   And so we had this message that we're going to continue to keep business flowing during that window of time. But then they got that trillion dollars dumped in there, they got seeing semi stable, they're dumping 30 to $40 billion a month in the market, sometimes more hundreds of billions of dollars a month in the market, trying to keep this money flowing. And that's how we got our interest rates down into the threes and fours.   So because of that, all that capital going in there, we had this this run on lower interest rates. So from January 2009. Up until just this last year, we had all this capital dumped into the keep the rate so that's what gave our average that a little bit lower point. But you know, some people are saying well, can we just get an ARM and wait for the rates to go back down? What makes you think they're going back down? The only time they went down from that average of 9.1 was when they dumped eight Point $9 trillion into the markets? Are they doing that again? I think they've learned their lesson not to do that. Michael: Yeah.   Aaron: So if that's the case, and let's just say that's the case, let's say, somebody's actually going to learn from history, and we're not going to erase history, we're not going to call it you know, whatever, whatever make up whatever we want to make up about it and say we're triggered by it, we're actually gonna remember this move was a bad move. I don't see interest rates getting back anything lower than what we have right now, this might be the lowest interest rates that we see in our lifetimes.   Michael: Interesting. Over the last 30-40 years, when we've seen interest rates spike like they have hasn't there been a pretty sharp decline after the fact?   Aaron: We have seen that a lot in our lifetime, just because of what I was just talking about with the Fed manipulating it. But prior to that, we didn't see that very much. We saw interest rates, hovering in fact, I got in the industry in 1997, the interest rates are in the sevens. And then that was for owner occupied. And then when they went down, like 6.875, I got this refi boom going on. In fact, you know, I was working two jobs, I was running heavy equipment in the morning, from 3am till noon, they go to the office from two till 10pm, I sleep four hours a day, for for a full year. But for the until those rates dropped below 7%, I was able to replace my income of 50, whatever, thousand a year at the time, and got full time into this industry. Well, as a result of that, you know, we got this 6% thing going on. And it never really got much lower than that we saw a window where the during the mid 2000s, that I was able to get an adjustable rate loan, like a five year ARM don't like 5.75. But that was it. It wasn't until quantitative easing do we start seeing these enormously low rates.   So we're not seeing these massive swings, like we see now, then the swings happen to be because we have a global market that everybody's tapped in, we get to see everything that's going on in real time, all the time. That's one of the really, really bad things of social media in the way our, our our technology is, what it's done for us has brought us to where we see the slightest thing happened. But on the other side of the world, it kills markets overnight. So that's why I see such massive swings. So some people think, well, if it goes down as we come right back up. We don't know that because there's another black swan waiting right around the corner. Why do we know that because we know what's going to happen in the other country when it happens.   It'd  be one thing we were just a an economy to ourselves. And it was not such a big big market mover. Now we're a global economy. And we have we have crazy people out there running countries, including our own doing stupid things that's causing such a massive swings and so much so much emotion in the market that I can't say it's going to improve. Now it's going to have to I mean, there will be some but to the extent we've seen I don't believe so.   Michael: Yeah. Interesting.   Aaron: Let me just say I pray I'm wrong.   Michael: Yeah. That makes two of us man.   Aaron: You're wrong. We're back in the season. We're good because I'm making another couple million dollars a year.   Michael: I love it. Someone if they didn't have the wisdom of hearing this show five years ago, three years ago, when they got their five, one ARM and now they got two years left on it and they got a 5% They got the ability to lock in a 6% for 30 years say? Or do they roll the dice and let it roll for another two years? See where interest rates land? What are you doing?   Aaron: I think goes back to that are your balls attached situation, just see, see what you're willing to do? Right, you're the ones guy put your head on the pillow at night, you got to be able to understand how you feel about. Me, I love to control things for as long as I can control it. I'll take my lumps. And I'll take that 6% all day long. Because I would much rather allow inflation to erode the dollar over a long period of time. Rather than forcing me in a situation like that. I've had too many people that I've talked to that did the ARM thing in somebody else's request even at my own. I mean, I did the there's something out there right now called the all in one. This is a big deal. Back in the early 2000s. We sold something very, very similar to this. It just wasn't called the all in one.   And when the market freaked out in 2008. And they started freezing these people's credit lines, I got numerous calls saying What did you put me in? Because I didn't know what was going to happen. Now I do know. And everybody says, well, they're not going to do that. What makes you think I'm not going to do that? The banking industry will do whatever the heck they want to do. They'll shut down. They will kill product, they will not honor locks. They'll wipe anything out that makes it work for them on the next day. They don't care about what they committed to today. They care about what it keeps them in existence tomorrow. As a result of that. I know that's what they do. I've seen them do it. I can't in good conscience do anything but tell person Hey, the 30 year fix so far is the only one with a proven track record.   Michael: Yeah, that makes a ton of sense. How did you think about the interest? I know you said it's not all about the interest rate. But let's put that on the shelf for a minute. If someone's got a property that they're not thrilled with its performance, but they've got this outrageously low rate and a 30 year fixed. Do you think time is going to heal that wound or do you think they should maybe look to move into something else at a higher rate, but that they might be a little bit happier with?   Aaron: I think it really, really depends upon the scenario what's making them so unhappy about it, is there a possibility to try to change whatever is making them happy unhappy about that there's something about the property, this specific thing that's creating a difficulty with it, is it just not being rented because of this or because of that, you know, it may be one of those times, we have to spend some time understanding what's happening in the market that's causing that property to be what it is, right? People coming by either I don't want to rent this thing. Because of this, or because of that, it could be a very simple thing. You know, when we own something we don't see with our lens very, very well, we see, hey, this is what the possibility is because we can only see from one angle, but when you get the whole market's angle on a multiple people are willing to come through a look at it, sit them down and ask them, Hey, can you tell me what what about this place? What would have to happen to that make it something so yes, I do want to rent this, or yes, this I can make my home for five years?   Understand that is sometimes you might have to bite the bullet, put a few bucks into it. And next thing, you know, now you have a very low interest rate, which again, that right there is, is is a very, very valuable piece in itself. And then you have whatever changed on this house that now makes it what it needs to be. And its location that might be something's completely, you know, one of these things you can't fix, right? You have to find the one person in the world that wants that and carry a note for them and see if you can swing something like that. But if it's something that's changeable because of aesthetics, or or usability, or it's just whatever that might be, you might have to bite the bullet and fix that one thing.   But investigate it first, before you try and make a very, very big decision. Like leave it as is and suck it up and write it out or dump it and move because I've seen I've got a very good friend of mine, named Joel, he owns a lot of shopping centers. I don't understand shopping centers. This guy's like the walking talking Stephen Hawking of shopping center this guy, just look at it, tell you what's wrong with it, and make it make money overnight. And the guy's amazing at what he's able to do. And because one person can't make it work, you have a guy like Joel come in, he looks at it makes an offer, they sell it cheap. He spends a few bucks. And now that thing's fully rented, and it's worth 10 times what he paid for it. It's just a matter of getting the right perspective. Take the time, understand the market, get the perspective.   Michael: I love that. I love that. Aaron, I want to get you out of here until next time, but in the meantime, where can folks if they didn't catch on the first episode, reach out to learn more about you or get a hold of one of your loans?   Aaron: Just go to aaronchapman.com And if that one doesn't work, go to aaronbchapman.com. Another good place to just Google Aaron Chapman. There's like five of us out there that pop up on Google there's only one bearded redneck lender there is a pastor there's a there's a English soccer player there is a an author and then camera with the other guy is but yeah, there's five and I'm an author as well so you can go to you can look me up on Amazon that kind of stuff. I'm working on another book got a few things cooking.   Michael: Right on man love it. Well hey, this was awesome as always and until next time, looking forward to it be well.   Aaron: Thanks, buddy. Good to see you again.   Michael: Likewise.    Alright everyone that was our episode A big thank you to Aaron for coming on again dropping some fantastic wisdom, insights and knowledge. As always, if you enjoyed the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review and we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing