Episode 348: Tells and Going with your Gut

In this solo episode, Andrew discusses multiway pots, bluff-catching, tells, and “going with your gut.”Become a Patreon patron to unlock daily episodes of pure Thinking Poker strategy.Zach Elwood’s books and videos on tellsStrategyWe are playing 2/5 NL at Texas Card House in Dallas. I have just recently moved up in stakes, taking a shot at the larger games. 2/5 here plays much more like a 5/10 or larger, with a 1000 starting cap with a match the largest stack rule when someone exceeds that. I sit down with my humble 1000 (which is all I am rolled for) and am the 3rd shortest stack at the table. Most players have around 3k or more, the largest stack is 6k.45 min into the session I am up to 2300 and looking down at black 10s in the CO. There is an UTG straddle to 10$, one limp, and I raise to 50 when it folds to me. The SB flats, then the BB raises to 275. The straddle and limper get out of the way and I flat in position. The SB also smooth calls. Both players cover me. It is worth noting i’ve only been at the table for a short while at this point and have little to no read on these players, but they have done nothing out of the ordinary.Pot is 845 and we go 3 ways to the flop, which is not the prettiest for me, AdKd7c. The SB thinks for a moment, then checks. The BB thinks for longer, then checks. I of course also check, and the flop has now checked through.Huh.I feel my play thus far is relatively uncontroversial, but feel free to discuss what might motivate the 3 better to check and not take the opportunity to utilize his range advantage or if there is any reason I should bet the flop here whatsoever.Much to the surprise of all 3 of us, we go to the turn uncontested which comes an off suit 5 of spades. The SB now leads into both of us for 300. The BB tanks, and then folds. Huh. I admittedly get curious, if not a little stubborn, and decide to flat and see a river. This decision is likely very controversial, but here is my line of thinking: there are a lot of straight/flush draws out there and I heavily block the gutter that results in broadway. However, I also block a lot of the hands I am ahead of that may elect to bet as a bluff like J10s and Q10s, though those are unlikely holdings given the double smooth call preflop. I feel this type of preflop action weights the SB much more towards a middling pocket pair such as 99-55, possibly even the other two remaining 10s, that is attempting to set mine. I rule out larger pairs as they likely would have 3 bet themselves preflop. All that being said, a flopped or turned set of 77 or 55 would certainly take this line. But so might other hands such as 99, 88, or any other weak 1 pair holdings he is either overvaluing or attempting to steal the pot with after he sees the flop check through. I wonder how often I should call here at equilibrium, if at all, or if there are better bluff catch hands to make this call with such as K9s or something similar I may have here. Feel free to discuss and correct my logic.The river comes a 2h, completing the full rainbow and board now sitting AdKd7c5s2h. Every draw bricks spectacularly. Pot is 1445, I am sitting with about 1725. I am expecting this to go check check the vast majority of the time. However, the SB does not oblige. He thinks a moment, asks how much I have left, and then elects to jam all the money in my face for 1.2x pot.